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Hey freaks -- who has the most trusted weather forecast??

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  • Hey freaks -- who has the most trusted weather forecast??

    We are coming up tomorrow to the hill! Staying through Monday. I know there's going to be a short warm trend however the disparity in forecasting is stressing to say the least. The Weather Channel forecast for Lowville has the temps peaking at about 35 on Thu/Fri. Now the NWS (who I keep quoting) claims its going to be 49!! on Friday. That's a huge freakin difference. NWS also mentions for Friday a rapid shift in temps in the pm (plummeting!) with high winds and lake snows Friday night? Should be quite cold for the weekend.

    So who's got the best forecast??

    My opinion is the rain will help the trails. But that's not saying much, LOL! There's been a lot of fluffy snow, am I right?

    If you see a guy in a blue GIANTS jacket, that's me!
    In this world we're living in, we have our share of sorrow . . . answer now is don't give in, aim for a new tomorrow.

  • #2
    Originally posted by mdrider
    My opinion is the rain will help the trails. But that's not saying much, LOL! There's been a lot of fluffy snow, am I right?

    Keep tyring to tell yourself that, LOL, I been saying the same thing myself because I plan on coming up Saturday morning & riding no matter what! Haven't been on my sled it seems forever. If I see a N.J. Giants jacket I'll stop, If you see a red Vmax with a White Polaris & snot colored A/C 500 that be me!

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    • #3
      I keep trying to tell myself that

      Vmax,

      This has got to be the wierdest year I've seen since my buddy started bringing me up there 8 years ago. Last year there may not have been any major LE but the snow was there little by little. This week for example, 12-18 inches followed by 45+ to be followed by near 0 and more LE possible. It's crazy. And it always seems to be around the weekend I plan to get all whacky. Looks like I may actually head up friday before the sun. I've got 6 hours of travel from MD. We were going to ride friday morning but its not supposed to change over to snow until after noon on friday. I guess we'd be twiddling our thumbs friday morning instead.

      I'm guessing we'll stay on the hill so most likely stops for us (just guessing here) will be Flat Rock, Montague, Louie's, Highmarket Inn, and Sportsmen. I'm hoping to stay now until Tuesday. Weather looks cold and snowy (fingers crossed) from fri night through most of next week.
      In this world we're living in, we have our share of sorrow . . . answer now is don't give in, aim for a new tomorrow.

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      • #4
        the trails where all groomed this morning..and then it started to get warm and the snow got some moisture in it..which should help only if it gets cold...martys in houseville was 47' at 1:00 pm....

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        • #5
          I'm still thinking positive

          Forecast calls for more of the same mild weather tomorrow. Some rain likely tomorrow night into friday morning. High near 50 on friday early, then temps should plummet around noon and change to snow (lake snow). Forecasting colder than normal temps through early next week. Arctic front is going to move in quick on friday. Expecting extreme winds as well (gusts over 50mph) calming early in the day.
          In this world we're living in, we have our share of sorrow . . . answer now is don't give in, aim for a new tomorrow.

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          • #6
            I think rnews weather on the 9's rules and is true. But when it says 50*f in febuary i wish they were liing.

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            • #7
              Hopefully the weather forecast is wrong & it stays colder then expected. Why is it that when the weathermen forcast snow their always way off but when it comes time to forecast warm temp. their right on?

              As usual I will be checking this site out everyday hoping for good news & praying for some rideable snow this weekend. This is a great site snopro!

              I'm pretty new to Tug Hill area & we will probably drop off the sleds at the Timberview, but with the limited snow if anybody has any better ideas of where to start I'd appreciate the info, everytime we drop there, the ride back to the truck is always hellish.

              Think Snow Sledfreaks, pray for lake effect Friday all afternoon & night!

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              • #8
                weather 2/15

                It was 22 in the morning at he Freeman inn but got to about 45 or something around that. I was heading back to jersey at 6:00pm and it was still 42.The trails were great mostly groomed and lots of snow but the temp and sun realy changed things, not to be to negitive but they need it to get cold and more snow.Today was predicted to be as warm,very sluchy and mud in some spots towards West Lyden from the hideaway.

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                • #9
                  I like the guy who calls for the most snow and cold... And right now I am really liking this guy... (in regards to this weekend)

                  "I'm gonna wait until the next model comes out early this evening. But the noon model, has now blown this thing, and I might be adding a 6 foot plus area. Bands are now oscliating more to the south and will be settling over the northern areas for a time as well. Only major change is that the models no longer indicate the bands will die out Monday, its looking like they will weaken for a time and then explode up again Monday night and run through at least Wednesday night when the model run ends"

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                  • #10
                    zr800 where did you get that report and are there any updates on it???

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                    • #11
                      from the NWS - Saturday

                      The Strong Storm Will Exit Far Eastern Quebec Friday Night...
                      While Arctic Air Will Pour Southward Across Both Lks Erie And
                      Ontario. Lake Delta T's Will Be In The Upper Teens Friday Night
                      Then Will Increase Into The Mid 20s Saturday...indicating Extreme
                      Instability. Lapse Rates Of 8 To 10 Deg C Will Be Found Below
                      850mb Over Lake Erie And Below 700 Mb Over Lake Ontario. this
                      Deep Layer Of Instability Will Combine With Well Aligned 290-310
                      Winds To Set The Potential For Significant Lake Snows...

                      Particularly Saturday And Saturday Night. The Lake Snows Will
                      Extend Into Sunday.

                      While It Would Fall Outside Of The Climatologically Favored Early
                      Winter Period For Such Events...it Is Not Out Of The Question
                      That Some Thundersnow Could Develop Off Lk Ontario Saturday Or
                      Saturday Night. Such Extreme Lake Delta T's Combined With A High
                      Equilibrium Level Are Two Important Ingredients For Thunder
                      Snows...but The -3 To -10c Layer Needed For Graupel Production Will
                      Essentially Be Non-existent. It Will Be Interesting To See How
                      This Unfolds.
                      In this world we're living in, we have our share of sorrow . . . answer now is don't give in, aim for a new tomorrow.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by artiksno340
                        zr800 where did you get that report and are there any updates on it???

                        They have backed down a little, but here is what they say for the GSA's: (looks like it is going to miss the hill)


                        "I'm done trying to say where and how much. So I'm just gonna say it's gonna be a big storm, and someone is gonna be looking at over 3 feet. A few vague calls for the GSA.

                        Albany... 2-4 inches
                        Bingo... 1-3 inches
                        Buffalo... 10 - 16 inches
                        Rochester... 8 - 14 inches
                        Syracuse... 24 - 30 inches "

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                        • #13
                          thanks bud. looks like there might be good riding somewhere next wknd

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